The first seven months of this year have largely aligned with market forecasts, reflecting a strong investor focus on acquiring high-quality works of art while showing reduced interest in lesser paintings and sculptures that might have performed well in previous market cycles. As I have consistently highlighted in my recent analyses of the May and June sales—and ahead of the significant auctions scheduled for October and November—the market continues to demonstrate that, even in challenging times, quality prevails.
The role of a skilled and trustworthy art advisor has never been more critical. Many new collectors entering the market are being presented with substandard works at inflated prices, making professional guidance essential to avoid costly mistakes.
The upcoming sale of Pauline Karpidas’ collection at Sotheby’s (HERE ) this autumn (17th-19th September) is expected to draw significant interest and strong bidding, given the exceptional quality of the collection and the competitive estimates. However, there are always opportunities and those buyers expecting to find a great Lalanne dining table will not necessarily be pursuing a Rebecca Warren sculpture. While opportunities for genuine bargains at major houses such as Sotheby’s and Christie’s have somewhat diminished, there remain undervalued works to be found in multi-owner sales from smaller auction houses across Paris, Berlin, smaller US cities, and, to some extent, Hong Kong too.
Sotheby’s impressive new premises in Paris also underscore the shifting dynamics of the European art market post-Brexit. London remains an important player, but it is clear that a significant portion of high-value activity in the Impressionist and Modern sectors is gravitating toward Paris. While I believe regulatory adjustments could allow London to regain momentum, such changes may not occur under the current government.
Looking ahead over the next six months, I would exercise caution with speculative investments in ‘bleeding-edge’ contemporary art, works by very young artists, many of which appear severely overvalued. Instead, I see considerable long-term value in the vibrant works of the Second School of Paris from the 1950-70s. Colourful, accessible paintings by artists such as Esteve, de Staël, and Soulages remain attractively priced relative to their quality. Similarly, artists associated with the CoBrA movement, including Constant, Karel Appel, and Pierre Alechinsky, continue to offer significant value, having not yet, regularly, broken through the seven-figure price ceiling internationally.
Modern British art, once a booming segment pre-Brexit, has softened somewhat over the last 12–18 months. Even top-tier works by Barbara Hepworth, Henry Moore, and other leading postwar sculptors now struggle to achieve strong prices unless they are of exceptional quality. One artist I believe remains notably undervalued is Ben Nicholson. Despite his large-scale, curved-board paintings representing a pinnacle of postwar British abstraction commanding vast 7 figure sums his smaller work is often unsold, with prices reeling for no apparent reason.
Within the Impressionist market, works by Claude Monet and, to a lesser degree, Camille Pissarro, retain enduring prestige and value. However, collectors seeking relative value should not overlook exceptional paintings by artists such as Alfred Sisley, Mary Cassatt, Berthe Morisot, and even Armand Guillaumin, whose works are often attractively priced compared to the increasingly expensive, though still beautiful, paintings by Gustave Loiseau.
Happy Summer, and I shall be returning with a good look at the Karpidas sale in early September when it goes on view at Bond Street.