The Summer lull is over and with a rocketing stock market in the US (and the UK) there is a great feeling of optimism in the art world as we approach Frieze London, Frieze Seoul and the forthcoming Christie’s, London, auctions. The re-calibration seen in June’s Contemporary auctions has meant for a significant interest in more blue chip, established, artists from earlier eras. Those museum-calibre deals that have made the headlines over the past few months (notably the Paul Gauguin painting, ‘Le Pouldu’, sold to the National Gallery of Australia for 6.5m USD) have tended to be for artists with a secure secondary market and, importantly, with a real international draw. The ideal for a collector/museum of top works of art is to be able to lend pieces to international-calibre exhibitions – these exhibitions give a vital line of exhibition history to the cataloguing of the works and, as such, make them even more collectable. There is nothing more wonderful for an art advisor than to examine a painting’s reverse covered in museum labels from previous art exhibitions; provenance is all.
The contemporary market has been in the news recently given that prices have plummeted for those artists in their 20s that were selling for vastly inflated numbers until relatively recently. The New York Times reported in June that works by young ‘Ultra-contemporary’ artists have plummeted by 39% in the last year. There have been significant layoffs at Pace gallery and Sotheby’s on this front. However, this is not a trend across all sectors, and I feel that the modern market is holding up well. Indeed, one may start to see good modern works getting caught in the sell offs and as such there may be opportunities to acquire undervalued property from the ‘premium’ secondary market years of c. 1870-1970. Comparing the contemporary art world with the Modern, Impressionist, and Old Master sectors is like comparing chalk with cheese. Those artists with established markets are always good value if you are tread carefully and use a decent advisor. Picasso, Monet, Pollock and their like are the ‘Apple Inc.’ and ‘Berkshire Hathaway’ of the art world. Yes, they may have their market blips but in the long run their values have never tanked.
Supply in the art world is everything. The perception that the market for an artist falls in line with his auction prices is often nonsense. It is simply that no decent work is available on the market. A depressed art market for Picasso is simply due to a lack of decent supply. Demand is rarely a factor. The classic example is seen in the Ganz sale of Picassos in 1997, in which several great works (including the fabulous ‘Le Reve’) made astronomical prices against a middling era for the art market (following Japan’s stock market and subsequent art market collapse in 1990). I shall be keeping my eyes firmly peeled in the forthcoming sales on King St. at Christie’s in October and, obviously, at Frieze Masters too. The timing of these market barometers could not be worse. With the election in the US in November and the challenging budget to be issued by Rachel Reeves on 30th October we shall see fabulous opportunities to buy at both events.
Over the course of the last 12 months the one area that has exploded in value and exposure is that of Indian and South East Asian art. I am constantly on the lookout for new markets and the prices being fetched for works by that titan of Modern Indian painting, Francis Newton Souza, in the recent New York sales are fabulous. The Indian art market is booming and the result that really focused minds was the result of Souza’s ‘The Lovers’; a work up for sale at Christie’s New York in March and which brought nearly 5m USD from an estimate of 700,000-1,000,000 USD. I see huge potential for this market and notably in the crossover between Indian painting and traditional western art. But for now, keep your eyes peeled for great examples of Souza, Sayed Raza and Ganesh Pyne. All marvellous painters with a deep market in the US as well as in India.
So, where is the real value sitting in the Western art market? I would hazard a guess that the white, male artists of the 1950s in the US and Europe are undercooked. Not necessarily the top names such as Rothko and Pollock but those second-tier artists who have been universally shunned in the last five years as, quite rightly, black and women artists have been championed. Artists such as Theodoros Stamos, Alfred Lewis and even Sam Francis are worth a look. Another market taking a battering and looking like exceptional value is that of the Modern British sector. The likes of our recent populist government, and Brexit, has made our cultural identity something of a pariah for young, international, collectors. This will change, and with it the ability of our great ‘Mod Brit’ galleries to sell such prominent artists as Moore, Hepworth and Lanyon. For the time being – they look like great value.
Over the Summer I have been working on a project to sell a significant collection of works via the major auction houses and numerous provincial houses too. Working with Bellman’s, Chiswick and Dreweatts has been such a pleasure. The major houses have raised their thresholds to such a degree that they are missing out on some under-valued little gems. I wonder if the recent suggestion of conjoining the Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary departments at the major houses will make for an even bigger vacuum in the middle market. It would be a massive mistake, and short-termism at its worst.
Over the course of the next few weeks, I shall be getting ready for the British Art fair and the beginning of the US and Europe OSFA ‘travel season’ too! If I can be of any assistance don’t hesitate to get in touch and please, do user an advisor when spending significant sums. There are so many great opportunities out there, but there are pitfalls too!